The health care workforce is being transformed by profound demographic changes and the steady growth of the U.S. health sector. In addition, the movement of physicians out of private practice to employment by medical centers has accelerated. And a new generation of health care professionals is demanding a sustainable work/life balance. These trends will combine to change the work environment of chest physicians.
Spending
The United States spends about twice as much on health care as any other industrialized nation and this fact is driving an increasingly urgent public discussion about options and means of reducing costs.1 Medicare and Medicaid already account for about a quarter of federal government spending and those numbers are expected to rise as baby boomers age.1 Employer spending on health care as a percentage of wages has doubled since the 1980s.2
Workforce supply
An expanding health care sector means a growing demand for health care labor. Health care occupations are projected to grow 18% from 2016 to 2026, faster than the average for all occupations and adding 2.4 million new jobs to the economy.3 Expert testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions in May 2018 projected shortages of physicians in the coming years. According to estimates of the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), there is a need for 13,800 additional primary care physicians in areas – especially rural – that are designated as health professional shortage areas. Signs of a worsening situation include projected shortages of 20,000 primary care physicians by 2025, according to HRSA, and 42,600-121,300 physicians by 2030, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. The demand for physicians will exceed supply by 46,000-90,000 by 2025. An update to that research increased the projected shortage range to 61,700-94,700 by 2025.4 These shortages will result in recruiting challenges for many medical centers, especially those in rural areas.