Frailty is an age-associated, nonspecific vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. Frailty can also be described as a complex of symptoms characterized by impaired stress tolerance due to a decline in the functionality of different organs.1 The prevalence of frailty varies widely depending on the method of measurement and the population studied.2-4 It is a nonconstant factor that increases with age. A deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) is one method used to measure frailty.5 This approach sees frailty as a multidimensional risk state measured by quantity rather than the nature of health concerns. A deficit accumulation FI does not require physical testing but correlates well with other phenotypic FIs.6 It is, however, time consuming, as ≥ 30 deficits need to be measured to offer greater stability to the frailty estimate.
Health care is seeing increasing utilization of big data analytics to derive predictive models and help with resource allocation. There are currently 2 existing automated tools to predict health care utilization and mortality at the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA): the VA Frailty Index (VA-FI-10) and the Care Assessment Need (CAN). VA-FI-10 is an International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) update of the VA-FI that was created in March 2021. The VA-FI-10 is a claims-based frailty assessment tool using 31 health deficits. Calculating the VA-FI-10 requires defining an index date and lookback period (typically 3 years) relative to which it will be calculated.7
CAN is a set of risk-stratifying statistical models run on veterans receiving VA primary care services as part of a patient aligned care team (PACT) using electronic health record data.8 Each veteran is stratified based on the individual’s risks of hospitalization, death, and hospitalization or death. These 3 events are predicted for 90-day and 1-year time periods for a total of 6 distinct outcomes. CAN is currently on its third iteration (CAN 2.5) and scores range from 0 (low) to 99 (high). CAN scores are updated weekly. The 1-year hospitalization probabilities for all patients range from 0.8% to 93.1%. For patients with a CAN score of 50, the probability of being hospitalized within a year ranges from 4.5% to 5.2%, which increases to 32.2% to 36% for veterans with a CAN score of 95. The probability range widens significantly (32.2%-93.1%) for patients in the top 5 CAN scores (95-99).
CAN scores are a potential screening tool for frailty among older adults; they are generated automatically and provide acceptable diagnostic accuracy. Hence, the CAN score may be a useful tool for primary care practitioners for the detection of frailty in their patients. The CAN score has shown a moderate positive association with the FRAIL Scale.9,10 The population-based studies that have used the FI approach (differing FIs, depending on the data available) give robust results: People accumulate an average of 0.03 deficits per year after the age of 70 years.11 Interventions to delay or reverse frailty have not been clearly defined with heterogeneity in the definition of frailty and measurement of frailty outcomes.12,13 The prevalence of frailty in the veteran population is substantially higher than the prevalence in community populations with a similar age distribution. There is also mounting evidence that veterans accumulate deficits more rapidly than their civilian counterparts.14
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020 and had many impacts on global health that were most marked in the first year. These included reductions in hospital visits for non-COVID-19 health concerns, a reduction in completed screening tests, an initial reduction in other infectious diseases (attributable to quarantines), and an increase or worsening of mental health concerns.15,16
We aimed to investigate whether frailty increased disproportionately in a subset of older veterans in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic when compared with the previous year using CAN scores. This single institution, longitudinal cohort study was determined to be exempt from institutional review board review but was approved by the Phoenix VA Health Care System (PVAHCS) Research and Development Committee.