Shortfall could cascade to other specialties
News that primary care is both struggling and shrinking doesn’t come as a surprise to those who research this area, according to Dr. Jabbarpour. Yet it matters “because primary care is where the majority of Americans get their health care.” According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, primary care accounts for 50% of all office visits. But the sector only encompasses 30% of the clinician workforce, according to a 2019 study of physician supply, and accounts for just 7% of national health expenditures, according to a separate 2019 study that measured primary care investment.
If primary care doesn’t bounce back, the shortfall could overwhelm the rest of the health care system, Dr. Jabbarpour said. “If primary care shortages increase, then urgent cares, ERs, and hospitals will become overwhelmed.”
Or public health could suffer as people don’t seek care at all. A study published earlier this summer found that up to 35% of excess deaths during the pandemic were not caused by COVID-19. Instead, they can be attributed to treatable causes, like heart disease, diabetes, and Alzheimers, the researchers concluded. In Dr. Etz’s estimation, this high cost is a glimpse of what happens when there isn’t adequate access to primary care.
When asked about the frequency of the PCC/Green Center surveys, Bianca Frogner, PhD, a health economist and deputy director at the University of Washington Primary Care Innovation Lab in Seattle, said it’s unusual to have this regularity. Also, it’s unique in that it offers a constant mix of physicians. “It’s a small sample, but it still gives a voice where there isn’t one.”
Smaller weekly surveys and secondary analysis projects from the Graham Center, an American Academy of Family Physicians affiliated research center, reinforce findings of the Green Center. The Graham Center surveys also found primary care is taking a financial hit, staff is being furloughed, and patient volume is down, according to Dr. Jabbarpour, who has been involved in most of the Graham Center’s work on COVID.
Dr. Frogner, Dr. Etz, and Dr. Jabbarpour agree that, as a nation, the United States has chronically underinvested in primary care, and now the system is in crisis. The hope is that the survey data gives policymakers, state leaders, and the federal government a better idea of what’s happening on the ground.
It’s also important for researchers “keeping an eye out for the available supply of primary care for certain populations,” Dr. Frogner said. The current conditions are especially a threat to rural and underserved areas, she added.
If primary health care isn’t near recovery that’s a problem for the entire population, Dr. Etz said. And what happens if there’s another surge of COVID-19 or even a second pandemic in our lifetime? Her recommendation: Treat it like disaster recovery. Step one is “Stop the hemorrhaging – they need immediate cash flow.”
A version of this article originally appeared on Medscape.com.