Applied Evidence

CV risk prediction tools: Imperfect, Yes, but are they serviceable?

J Fam Pract. 2018 September;67(9):E3-E8

References

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Although demographic changes have increasingly led to an extension of primary prevention strategies for CAD to elderly people, the FRS has been demonstrated to perform less well in patients older than 70 years, particularly men.⁵ An ideal CAD prediction model for elderly people should take into account that, with growing age and frailty, CAD events may be increasingly preempted by death from competing non-coronary causes. In addition, the predictive association of typical CVD risk factors diminishes with increasing age.^6,7 Koller and colleagues developed a CAD risk prediction model that accounted for death from non-coronary causes and was validated specifically in patients 65 years and older. Koller’s prediction model provided well-calibrated risk estimates, but it was still not substantially more accurate than the FRS—illustrating the overall difficulty in predicting CAD risk in elderly people.⁸

Alternative risk calculators have come on the scene

Over the past 2 decades, numerous models have been developed in an attempt to overcome the perceived shortcomings of the FRS. A recent systematic review identified 363 prediction models described in the medical literature prior to July 2013.⁹ The usefulness of most models remains unclear, however, owing to:

methodological shortcomings,
considerable heterogeneity in the definitions of outcomes, and
lack of external validation.

Even models that are well-validated for a specific population suffer from lack of applicability to a broad multinational population.

In the United Kingdom (UK), electronic health record systems now have the QRISK2 tool embedded to calculate 10-year CVD risk. This algorithm incorporates multiple traditional and nontraditional risk factors (TABLE¹⁰). With the inclusion of additional risk factors and validation performed in a population similar to the one from which the algorithm was derived, QRISK2 predicts CVD risk in the UK population more accurately than the modified FRS does.¹⁰ It is not clear, however, whether the same algorithm can be applied to the general US population.

New tool: 2013 ACC/AHA pooled cohort risk equations

In the context of multiple imperfect CVD risk-prediction algorithms, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Task Force on Practice Guidelines published the 2013 Pooled Cohort Risk (PCR) equations to predict 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic CVD event. The Task Force acknowledged concern that the FRS is based on a cohort that might not accurately represent the general US population. Accordingly, PCR equations were developed from 5 large National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded cohorts: the Framingham Heart Study, the Framingham Offspring Study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, the Cardiovascular Health Study, and the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

Continue to: The resulting CVD risk calculator incorporates...