LONDON—As has been previously shown with brain atrophy and lesion volume, retinal measures can have predictive value for medium-term disability in multiple sclerosis (MS), according to research presented at the 32nd Congress of the European Committee for Treatment and Research in MS (ECTRIMS). “Our preliminary findings support the utility of optical coherence tomography (OCT) as a tool to predict neurodegeneration and disease progression over time in patients with MS,” said Alissa M. Rothman, MD, a post-doctoral research coordinator at the Johns Hopkins MS Center in Baltimore.
Measures of retinal layer thickness obtained with OCT have been shown to correlate with visual function, grey matter volume, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores in MS. However, the prognostic value of retinal measurements for predicting long-term disability in patients with MS is still being evaluated. In the present study, Dr. Rothman and colleagues sought to determine whether retinal thickness, as assessed by OCT, predicts disability in MS 10 years later.
A total of 89 patients with MS were scanned on Stratus OCT between 2006 and 2007. During 2015 and 2016, these patients underwent formal, blinded EDSS determination. Average peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and total macular volume (TMV) were assessed by calculating the mean value of these measures for both eyes in each subject. Patients were categorized by baseline diagnosis as relapsing remitting (RRMS), secondary progressive (SPMS), or primary progressive MS (PPMS). Mixed effects linear regression models were used to investigate whether average TMV and RNFL thickness at baseline predict EDSS score after 10 years.
The final analysis included 75 patients with RRMS, nine patients with SPMS, and five patients with PPMS. Fourteen of the 75 patients with a baseline diagnosis of RRMS transitioned to SPMS during the follow-up period. Baseline analyses revealed that the RRMS cohort was significantly younger than the SPMS and PPMS cohorts (mean difference = 21.5 years and 11.7 years, respectively) and that patients with SPMS had a longer disease duration than patients with RRMS and PPMS (mean difference = 14.2 years and 13.2 years, respectively). A history of optic neuritis (ON) was observed in the RRMS and SPMS cohorts (41% and 44%, respectively), but not in the PPMS cohorts. Adjusting for age, sex, and a history of ON, the mean TMV values at baseline predicted EDSS scores after a median follow-up of 9.3 years. On average, a 1 mm3 lower TMV value at baseline predicted a mean decrease of 2 in EDSS at follow-up. Mean baseline RNFL values did not significantly predict EDSS scores.
—Glenn S. Williams