Conference Coverage

How Can We Predict Whose MS Will Worsen?

Two factors predict conversion to secondary progressive MS.


 

BOSTON—In older people with multiple sclerosis (MS), fatigue and limited lower leg function are more common in people with MS progression than in those without, according to a preliminary study presented at the 69th Annual Meeting of the American Academy of Neurology.

“Study participants with those symptoms were more likely to progress from relapsing-remitting MS to secondary progressive MS within five years,” said study author Bianca Weinstock-Guttman, MD, a Professor in the Department of Neurology at the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at the University of Buffalo in New York. “Better understanding of who is at high risk of getting worse may eventually allow us to tailor more specific treatments to these people.”

Bianca Weinstock-Guttman, MD

Older age at disease onset, high frequency of relapses, and male sex have been found to be predictive of higher risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS. To further define predictors of disease progression, Dr. Weinstock-Guttman and colleagues investigated patient-reported outcomes in an aging cohort of patients with MS.

For the study, 155 people age 50 or older who had had relapsing-remitting MS for at least 15 years were evaluated for symptoms and level of disability at the beginning of the study and five years later, at which point they had been living with MS for an average of 22 years. The study subjects were part of the New York State MS Consortium.

In all, 30.3% of people in the study had progressed to secondary progressive MS by the five-year mark. Those who progressed to secondary progressive MS were older at study enrollment (54.8 vs 52.1) and had a higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score at baseline (3.5 vs 2.6) and at year 5 (5.6 vs 3.0). Those who progressed at year 5 were more likely to report lower limb problems at baseline (53.2% vs 21.5%; odds ratio, 3.0) and were more likely to report fatigue (91.5% vs 68.2%; odds ratio, 4.2), compared with those whose disease did not progress. The results were the same after researchers adjusted for other factors that could affect disease progression, such as age, disease duration, and disability severity.

“While more research needs to be done, this study brings us closer to understanding which older adults with MS may be at higher risk of getting worse,” said Dr. Weinstock-Guttman. “With the aging population, this information will be vital as people with MS, their families, and policy makers make decisions about their care.” The investigation was supported by the National MS Society.

Glenn S. Williams

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