Duration of illness, age, and the presence of specific symptoms are key predictors of hospitalization risk due to respiratory infection, according to a study published in The Lancet. These demographic and clinical factors should guide a primary care physician’s decision to prescribe antibiotics.
“More than 80% of all health-service antibiotics [are] prescribed by primary care clinicians,” reported Alastair Hay, MD, of the University of Bristol, England, and his associates.
Dr. Alastair Hay
“Antibiotic prescribing in primary care is increasing and directly affects antimicrobial resistance,” the researchers noted, adding that many primary care clinicians prescribe antibiotics to pediatric patients with respiratory tract infections and/or cough to “mitigate perceived risk of future hospital admission and complications.”
A total of 8,394 pediatric patients who presented with acute cough and one or more other symptoms of respiratory tract infection (such as fever and coryza) were enrolled in the study by primary care physicians at 247 clinical sites in England. All eligible patients were between the ages of 3 months and 16 years; children were excluded if they presented with noninfective exacerbation of asthma, were at high risk of serious infection, or required a throat swab. The study’s primary outcome was hospital admission for any respiratory tract infection within 30 days of enrollment; the data were collected from a review of electronic medical records (Lancet. 2016. Sept 1. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600[16]30223-5).
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The median age of the pediatric cohort was 3 years, 52% were male, and 78% were white. A total of 3,121 patients (37%) were prescribed an antibiotic by their primary care physicians, but only 78 patients (0.9%) were admitted to the hospital, and 27% of discharge diagnoses suggested a possible bacterial cause (lower respiratory tract infection, tonsillitis, and pneumonia).
Multivariate modeling with bootstrap validation demonstrated that duration of illness, age, and the presence or absence of specific respiratory symptoms were the key factors that should be used to identify children at low, normal, and high risk for hospitalization due to respiratory infection. Younger patients with shorter illness durations who presented with wheeze, fever, vomiting, intercostal or subcostal recession, and/or asthma were at higher risk for hospitalization.
“Our data show that 1,846 (33%) of the very-low-risk stratum children received antibiotics. Because these children represent the majority (67%) of all the participants, a 10% overall reduction in antibiotic prescription would be achieved if prescription in this group halved, remained static in the normal risk stratum, and increased to 90% in the high risk stratum, resulting in a similar effect size to other contemporary antimicrobial stewardship interventions,” Dr. Hay and his associates concluded.
This study received funding and sponsorship from the National Institute for Health Research and the University of Bristol. Two investigators reported receiving financial compensation or honoraria from multiple companies including companies with an interest in diagnostic microbiology in respiratory tract infections.
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