As holiday celebrations wind down in the United States, COVID is on the rise.
Will there be another winter surge? If so, can we minimize it? How big a role might the boosters play in that? Are more mandates coming, along with a return to closed offices and businesses? Read on for a look at the latest info.
Cases, hospitalizations, deaths
As of Dec. 27, the latest statistics, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports more than 487,000 weekly cases, compared to about 265,000 for the week ending Oct. 12. On average, 4,938 people were admitted to the hospital daily from Dec. 19 to 25, down about 6% from the 5,257 admitted daily the week before.
Deaths totaled 2,952 weekly as of Dec. 21, up from 2,699 on Dec. 14.
“What’s sobering overall is still seeing about 400 deaths a day in the U.S.,” said Peter Chin-Hong, MD, professor of medicine and infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. “It’s still very high.”
As of Dec. 17, the variants predominating are BQ.1, BQ.1.1, and XBB. Experts said they are paying close attention to XBB, which is increasing quickly in the Northeast.
Predicting a winter surge
Experts tracking the pandemic agree there will be a surge.
“We are in the midst of it now,” said Eric Topol, MD, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, Calif., and editor-in-chief of Medscape (MDedge’s sister site). “It’s not nearly like what we’ve had in Omicron or other waves; it’s not as severe. But it’s being particularly felt by seniors.”
One bit of good news: “Outside of that group it doesn’t look like – so far – it is going to be as bad a wave [as in the past],” Dr. Topol said.
Predicting the extent of the post-holiday surge “is the billion-dollar question right now,” said Katelyn Jetelina, PhD, a San Diego epidemiologist and author of the newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist.
“Much of these waves are not being driven by subvariants of concern but rather behavior,” she said.
People are opening up their social networks to gather for celebrations and family time. That’s unique to this winter, she said.
“I think our numbers will continue to go up, but certainly not like 2021 or 2020,” Dr. Chin-Hong said.
Others point out that the surge doesn’t involve just COVID.
“We are expecting a Christmas surge and we are concerned it might be a triple surge,” said William Schaffner, MD, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn., referring to the rising cases of flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).
Dr. Jetelina shares that concern, worrying that those illnesses may be what overwhelms hospital capacity.
Another wild card is the situation in China. With the easing of China’s “zero COVID” policies, cases there are rising dramatically. Some models are predicting up to 1 million COVID deaths could occur in China in 2023. (The United States is now requiring travelers from China to show a negative COVID test before entering. Italy and Japan have taken similar measures.)
“The suffering that is going to occur in China is not good news at all,” Dr. Topol said. “We are going to be seeing that for many weeks if not months ahead.”
Theoretically, uncontained spread such as what is expected there could generate a whole new family of variants, he said. But “the main hit is going to be in China,” he predicted. “But it’s hard to project with accuracy.”
“China is 20% of the global population, so we can’t ignore it,” Dr. Jetelina said. “The question is, what’s the probability of a subvariant of concern coming from China? I think the probability is pretty low, but the possibility is there.”
What happens with cases in China may “throw a wrench” in the transition from pandemic to endemic, Dr. Chin-Hong said. But even if the rising cases in China do result in a new variant, “there’s so much T cell and B cell immunity [here], your average person is still not going to get seriously ill, even if the variant looks really scary.”