Major Finding: U.S. health care spending is projected to rise to about $4.6 trillion by 2019, growing at an average rate of 6.3% a year.
Data Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary.
Disclosures: The authors had no relevant financial disclosures.
WASHINGTON — By 2019, nearly 93% of U.S. residents will be covered by health insurance, with nearly 20% of the gross domestic product being consumed in the process, federal actuaries announced at a press briefing.
U.S. health spending is expected to grow on an average annual rate of 6.3% over the next 10 years, 0.2% faster than was projected before passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and reach an estimated $4.6 trillion by 2019, according to an analysis by officials in Office the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (Health Affairs 2010 Sept. 9 [doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2010.0788]).
The projections update an analysis done in February. This time, they take into account the impact of the ACA as well as changes to COBRA premium subsidies and Medicare physician fee schedule.
With those changes, the average annual growth rate for health care spending will increase from 6.1% before reform to 6.3% after, according to the authors.
“While the estimated net impact of the Affordable Care Act and other legislative and regulatory changes on national health spending are moderate, the underlying effects of these changes on coverage and financing are more pronounced,” Andrea Sisko, lead author of the analysis and a CMS economist, said during the press briefing.
Meanwhile, the implementation of ACA provisions including the Pre-Existing Condition Insurance Plan and the extension of coverage of dependents under age 26 years are estimated to increase national health spending by $10.2 billion through 2013, according to the analysis.
Nancy-Ann DeParle, director of the White House Office of Health Reform, wrote in a blog post that the “report by the Office of the Actuary confirms a central point of the Affordable Care Act passed by Congress and signed by President Obama: The Act will make health care more affordable for all Americans with insurance.”
She added that by 2019, per capita health spending will average $14,720 instead of the $16,120 projected by the Actuary before the Act was enacted into law. “A close look at this report's data suggest that for average Americans, the Affordable Care Act will live up to its promise,” she wrote.
This year, health spending is projected to reach $2.6 trillion −17.5% of the gross domestic product – a 0.2% increase from the pre-reform projections. Authors noted the increase is driven largely by postponement of physician payment cuts under the Medicare sustainable growth rate (SGR) formula and changes to the COBRA legislations.
The major spike in health spending will be in 2014 when an additional 30 million Americans are expected to gain coverage. Overall spending is projected to increase 9.2% that year, compared with the 6.6% that was estimated in February.