Even though millions of Americans have gained health insurance through the Affordable Care Act over the last year, researchers at the Commonwealth Fund say the health care system isn’t likely to be overwhelmed caring for them.
In an analysis released on Feb. 25, researchers at the think tank estimated that on average there would be only about 1.34 additional visits to primary care offices per week, an increase of 3.8% nationally. Hospital outpatient departments will see between 1.2 and 11 additional visits weekly, on average, an uptick of about 2.6% nationally.
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“Although analysts have expressed concern that greater access to care will strain the service delivery system, our projections suggest that increased use of health services by the newly insured will be relatively modest for most services,” the researchers wrote in the report.
The modest increase in the use of health care services means that the existing health care workforce will be able to meet the demands, according to the Commonwealth Fund. And structural changes – some of which are already underway – will help, including physician pooling and the greater use of nurses and physician assistants as part of a care-delivery team. Technological advances, such as telemedicine and the electronic exchange of health information, can also help the existing physician workforce meet the increased demand for services, according to the report.
“The U.S. health system is likely to be able to absorb these increases.” Sherry Glied, Ph. D., dean of the Robert Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University and lead author of the report, wrote.
Researchers used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to estimate current utilization rates and then calculated additional use based on coverage gains under the Affordable Care Act.