Conversely, the Phoenix-based Banner Health Network plans to stay in the program and is already recruiting new physicians for the third year of the program, which begins in 2014.
"Through our experience, we believe the value-based Pioneer ACO model has merit, and that it has the potential to diminish the predominance of fee-for-service plans in government and private sectors," Chuck Lehn, CEO of the Banner Health Network, said in a statement. "It is the best solution at this time for creating sustainability for the Medicare program, and could be the basis for historic change in the U.S. health care industry."
The departure of nine ACOs from the Pioneer model isn’t bad news for the program, Mr. Childs said. "In our view, this is an organic shift, and one that should be expected."
Mr. Childs predicted that even those ACOs that chose to leave the program completely will continue to experiment with the model with private payers.
"Remember that providers have made tremendous investments in getting their ACOs off the ground and they will want and need to continue to leverage these investments, most likely in a setting that offers more favorable terms that are more amenable to their operations and local patient populations," he said. "In our view, the churn out of Pioneer and into other flavors of ACO payment is more about an individual organization’s appetite for risk than it is a statement about the program."