Twice-yearly ultrasound screening for liver cancer increases survival an average of almost 5 months in cirrhosis patients and costs about $32,415 per life-year gained, according to new economic modeling.
“The overall gain in life expectancy might be considered modest,” but it’s “good by cancer screening standards.” The cost, meanwhile, is within the accepted threshold in the United States of $30,000-50,000 per life-year gained (LYG), said French investigators led by statistician Benjamin Cadier of the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research, Paris (Hepatology. 2017 Feb 8. doi:10.1002/hep.28961).
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To estimate probabilities and costs for various scenarios, the team combined data from two large French cohorts – one of viral cirrhosis, another of HCC – with French and U.S. pricing data, among other information. French costs with biannual screening were far less, at $1,754 per LYG, because of a 4-10–fold difference in the price of surveillance and first-line curative treatment. The team estimated that 10-year overall survival was 67% with current monitoring practices, and 76% with biannual ultrasound.
The mean survival increase from 6.8 to 7.2 years was attributed to earlier detection, higher access to curative first-line treatment, and better treatment results. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA), as opposed to liver resection or transplant, provided the best value for the money. “Our results indicate that [guideline-directed] monitoring for patients with cirrhosis is cost-effective,” the team said.
“Later detection not only reduced the likelihood of curative treatment, but also increased the proportion of [liver transplants] among the curative treatments,” they said.
In the modeling, when biannual ultrasound surveillance detected a suspicious nodule, the recall policy included magnetic resonance imaging or computerized tomography, and liver biopsy, if needed, based on recent international guidelines, with subsequent treatment.
There was no outside funding for the work. The lead investigator had no conflicts. Other investigators were consultants for Bayer, General Electric, AbbVie, Janssen, Bristol-Meyer Squibb, Gilead, and other companies.