Higher poverty concentration at the county level significantly increased the risk of firearm-related deaths in children and youth aged 5-24 years in the United States, based on a review of approximately 67,000 fatalities.
Firearms are the second-leading cause of death in children and young adults in the United States, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wrote Jefferson T. Barrett, MD, of The Children’s Hospital at Montefiore, New York, and colleagues. County-level poverty has been associated with increased injury mortality in children, but the association between county-level poverty and firearm-related mortality in particular has not been well studied.
In a cross-sectional study published in JAMA Pediatrics, 67,905 firearm-related deaths in children and youth aged 5-24 years that occurred between Jan. 1, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2016 were analyzed. The deaths included 42,512 homicides (62.6%), 23,034 suicides (33.9%), and 1,627 unintentional deaths (2.4%).
County poverty data were acquired from the U.S. Census Bureau. County-level poverty was divided into five categories based on percentage of the population living below the federal poverty level: 0%-4.9%, 5%-9.9%, 10%-14.9%, 15%-19.9%, and 20% or more.
Overall, 88.6% of the total deaths were in males. Notably, 44.8% of total firearm-related deaths and 63.9% of homicides occurred in non-Hispanic Blacks, who make up only 14% of the youth population in the United States, the researchers wrote.
The total number of firearm-related deaths was 248 in the lowest quintile of poverty concentration, followed by 6,841, 18,551, 27,305, and 14,960 in the remaining quintiles.
In a multivariate regression model that included demographics, urban versus rural, and statewide firearm prevalence, youth in counties with the highest quintile of poverty concentration had an increased rate of total firearm-related deaths (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 2.29), as well as increased rates of homicides, suicides, and unintentional deaths (aIRR, 3.55, 1.45, and 9.32, respectively), compared with those living in the lowest quintile of poverty concentration. Individuals in the highest poverty quintile accounted for 22.0% of total firearm-related deaths, 25.5% of homicides, 15.3% of suicides, and 25.1% of unintentional deaths.
The researchers also calculated the population-attributable fraction (PAF) and years of potential life lost. “The PAF represents the proportion of deaths associated with a particular exposure, which was concentrated county poverty in this study,” they explained. The PAF for all firearm-related deaths was 0.51, PAFs for homicides, suicides, and unintentional deaths were 0.66, 0.30, and 0.86, respectively. The PAF calculation translated to 34,292 firearm-related deaths that may not have occurred if youth in all counties had the same risk as those in counties with the lowest poverty concentration.
“Over the 10-year study period, we observed 3,833,105 years of potential life lost in youth aged 5-24 years from firearm-related deaths,” the researchers wrote.
The study findings were limited by several factors including the potential bias of a cross-section design, and inability to account for all the ways that county-level poverty might increase the risk of firearm-related death in children and teens, the researchers noted. Other potential limitations include possible misclassification of death, lack of data on individual family incomes, shifts in counties in the poverty categories over time, and the use of statewide, rather than countywide, estimates of firearm ownership.
However, the results are consistent with those of previous studies, and add that “mortality rates were consistent even after controlling for demographic variables, county urbanicity, and statewide firearm prevalence,” the researchers concluded.