Background The combination of manual physical therapy and exercise provides important benefit for more than 80% of patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). Our objective was to determine predictor variables for patients unlikely to respond to these interventions.
Methods We used a retrospective combined cohort study design to develop a preliminary clinical prediction rule (CPR). To determine useful predictors of nonsuccess, we used an extensive set of 167 baseline variables. These variables were extracted from standardized examination forms used with 101 patients (64 women and 37 men with a mean age of 60.5±11.8 and 63.6±9.3 years, respectively) in 2 previously published clinical trials. We classified patients based on whether they achieved a clinically meaningful benefit of at least 12% improvement in Western Ontario MacMaster (WOMAC) scores after 4 weeks of treatment using the smallest and most efficient subset of predictors.
Results The variables of patellofemoral pain, anterior cruciate ligament laxity, and height >1.71 m (5’7’’) comprise the CPR. Patients with at least 2 positive tests yielded a posttest probability of 88% for nonsuccess with this treatment (positive likelihood ratio=36.7). The overall prognostic accuracy of the CPR was 96%.
Conclusion Most patients with knee OA will benefit from a low-risk, cost-effective program of manual physical therapy and supporting exercise.1,2 The few patients who may not benefit from such a program are identifiable by a simple (preliminary) CPR. After validation, this rule could improve primary patient management, allowing more appropriate referrals and choices in intervention.
Although the exact cause of knee OA is unclear, its incidence increases with age and it is particularly prevalent among women and those who are obese and have occupations requiring heavy lifting and frequent kneeling or squatting.3-6 Lifelong sport-specific activity7,8 and joint injury9 also seem to increase the risk for knee OA. Knee malalignment also may predispose people to knee OA,10 and the presence of early degenerative changes predicts progression of the disease.11 The disability and pain associated with knee OA correlate with a loss of quadriceps femoris muscle strength and limited joint range of motion.12-14
Medications and surgery carry substantial risks. Pharmacologic interventions for knee OA include nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, acetaminophen, and cyclooxygenase-2-selective inhibitors.15-17 While each of these drugs reduces pain and improves function, potential side effects include gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, renal, and hepatic complications.16,18-21
Effective surgical options—most appropriate for advanced OA—include high-tibial osteotomy and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). There is good evidence that arthroscopic surgery is not an effective intervention for knee OA, yielding results for pain and function equivalent to those seen with knee capsule injections of saline, tidal irrigation, and placebo surgery.22-25 TKA reduces pain, improves function, and decreases arthritis-related costs in older individuals with advanced knee OA.26,27 However, this procedure is not without risk.28 Total knee replacement in patients younger than 55 years is associated with increased mortality.29 Reported adverse outcomes of TKA include death, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolus, deep wound infections,30,31 arterial lacerations, amputations,32 postoperative ileus,33 fractures, joint stiffness, and ligamentous instability.34 Viscosupplementation reduces pain and improves function, most evident at 5 to 13 weeks posttreatment, with few reported serious complications and moderate rates of local complications.35
Physical therapy is beneficial for mild to moderate OA and confers very low risk. Both physical therapy and exercise programs for OA have demonstrated benefit in a variety of settings.36-42 As shown in 2 independently conducted randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (one placebo controlled and one with an alternate treatment comparison), manual physical therapy applied during a small number of clinical sessions and supplemented by home exercise yields large reductions in pain and stiffness and improvements in functional ability persisting to 1 year as measured on the WOMAC Osteoarthritis Index,1,2 a validated self-report outcome instrument for OA of the hip and knee.43 In these studies, 60% of subjects receiving manual physical therapy and exercise achieved more than 50% improvement in WOMAC scores (pain, stiffness, and function) postintervention. Additionally, 83% achieved more than the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of 12% improvement.1,2 Physical therapy and exercise combined also decreased the need for TKA and long-term medication use.1,2
For an intervention that benefits most patients, there is clearly an interest in determining predictors of treatment failure44 to expedite referral for alternative care. When the time or resources required to attend physical therapy appointments would create financial or personal hardships, more appropriate interventions may be home-based physical therapy exercise programs or medications and injections. Equally important, patients for whom knee OA rehabilitation is predicted to fail can be reprioritized for physical therapy aimed at coexisting conditions or injuries such as a functionally limiting impingement syndrome of the shoulder or chronic degenerative back or hip conditions.