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Has HCV Spontaneous Clearance Been Underestimated?

Int J Infect Dis; ePub 2018 Jul 18; Ayoub, et al

Publish date:: August 24, 2018

One-third of persons infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) clear their infection spontaneously, a finding higher than earlier estimates, a recent study found. Researchers developed a mathematical model to describe HCV transmission; HCV clearance rate was estimated fitting to model to probability-based and nationally-representative population-based data for Egypt and the United States (NHANES A and NHANES B). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Among the findings:

HCV clearance rate was estimated at nearly 40% for Egypt 2008 and Egypt 2015 data, respectively.
HCV clearance rate was estimated at nearly 30% and 40% for NHANES A and NHANES B data, respectively.
HCV clearance was found related to HCV viremic rate through (approximately) the formula f_clearance = 1.16(1—HCV viremic rate).
HCV viremic rate was higher with higher risk of HCV exposure.

Citation:

Ayoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Omori R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Hepatitis C virus infection spontaneous clearance: Has it been underestimated? [Published online ahead of print July 18, 2018]. Int J Infect Dis. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.07.013.

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